Morningstar Economic Update NZ June 2023


• Core inflation and headline inflation pressures are easing, but the former is glacial in pace and central banks are becoming more concerned that elevated inflation could be embedded in pricing behaviour.

• Fixed-income markets are gravitating towards central banks keeping interest rates higher for longer, though they still expect some modest relief in 2024.

• Equities have performed well, in part buoyed by economic resilience, artificial intelligence prospects, receding headline inflation, and liquidity.

• Weaker global growth looks set to extend into 2024, the sacrificial pawn to containing inflation. With liquidity set to tighten, equities buoyancy will be reliant on an anticipated recovery in earnings, which is at odds with growth prospects and productivity trends.

• The stickiness of core inflation and uncertainty over a soft or hard landing for regions and the global economy point to diversification in asset allocation.